tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post3517250698991093409..comments2024-03-28T15:28:28.391+08:00Comments on A Young Investor's Diary: Croesus Retail Trustsgyounginvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02036598665471392859noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-35825154710091559382013-07-01T20:26:04.625+08:002013-07-01T20:26:04.625+08:00Given the mood at that point in time, it seemed a ...Given the mood at that point in time, it seemed a good stag. Then again, every bubble is as such until it bursts when everybody least expected.sgyounginvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02036598665471392859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-81767025906271930482013-06-26T09:42:45.507+08:002013-06-26T09:42:45.507+08:00Good write-up, but before reading your article, I ...Good write-up, but before reading your article, I had a "stag" call on this stock which turned out to be the right recommendation.Dennis Leenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-9261118118573081512013-06-10T14:41:44.403+08:002013-06-10T14:41:44.403+08:00Your knowledge has far exceeded your age.
Would ...Your knowledge has far exceeded your age. <br /><br />Would you be interested to exchange link?<br />My url is http://tradingeducationprogram.org/.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-38659598559603140702013-05-12T11:54:55.046+08:002013-05-12T11:54:55.046+08:00WoW prompt reply, Thanks.
Yup, do agree with you. ...WoW prompt reply, Thanks.<br />Yup, do agree with you. (Like i used "optimistically" which is unlikely to happen)<br /><br />I have just read some of your other posts, very thoughtful in research. <br />I have bookmarked your blog and will pay more visits :P in the future.<br /><br />keep up the good work, and Wish you have a fruitful 2013. <br /><br />Warmest Regards,<br />LexLexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-12109798958437407882013-05-11T16:57:37.371+08:002013-05-11T16:57:37.371+08:00Cost of debt will not be low just because of conti...Cost of debt will not be low just because of continuous money-printing. Using Fisher Equation -> Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation Rate.<br /><br />With inflation, nominal interest rate will start to go up. The reason why cost of debt is so low is due to the deflationary environment that it has been in for decade. Thus, instead of lower interest rate, you will get higher interest rate with inflation. To put it another way, if the inflation rate is 2%, will bank want to lend money out at 1.5% to see their Real profit getting eroded? More people will also sell out of bond with inflation, bond price will drop and interest rate will rise. <br /><br />With Japan's interest rate at such low level, it seemed like the only way to go is higher and not lower, unless they go into negative interest rate.<br /><br />Personally, I am a long term investor who is willing to hold and wait for at least 3 years. Nonetheless, if value is realised much faster than my investment horizon, i will liquidate my investment.sgyounginvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02036598665471392859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-64095193945641144832013-05-11T11:21:44.217+08:002013-05-11T11:21:44.217+08:00Wow very Good and comprehensive, thanks for the ar...Wow very Good and comprehensive, thanks for the article.<br />I would like to share some of my views on that, <br />personally I did not jump into it, <br />because i felt the 1.15 close price is already overpriced for a REIT. <br />IPO is 0.93 and it says 0.9 NAV so it is 3.33% premium p/nav, and 26% upside potential in 12 months meaning possible price 1.17 (first day high 1.18) in 12 month. <br />1st day closed @1.15 (roughly) meaning upside of 23% which capture almost whole year upside potential.<br /><br />few things here, I'm surprised by it is Cost of debt 1.7% too. However, You may wanna consider the macro-econ which jap is printing non-stop so far hoping to achieve inflation, therefore to me, i felt that the cost of debt is likely to stay for sometime, or optimistically, lower in the future.<br /><br />They went for gearing and they hedge the return to secure the yield for the 1st 2 yrs. which i think it is the reason for the folks to jump in, BUT hedging is costly as well and only 2 years then they will maneuver around base on the situation, meaning they are taking quite high risk after that. (stock will fluctuate quite a lot)<br /><br />expecting many of the 11 corner stones to throw their state in 6 months later. the 1st day stock price already gave them more than 20% return. (what is the reason to keep for long, unless the REIT has a very bright future, in which i do not agree:you already describe quite thoroughly) <br /><br />However, so far I still not state what's the purpose of saying all these. <br />To me, I'm more on value investing (long term), so I would like to see how long can this REIT go and whether or not the price is worth the money. So do you, i felt that after reading through the article, i cannot identify what kind of investor you are. So maybe you would like to stretch more on that like what kind of investor you are (e.g. short term basically less than a year or so, mid term 1-2year, or long term 1-30years etc) then your article would attract more people with the same interest as yours. I think they will greatly help you in the future as you are really young and already could be so thoughtful. <br /><br />I like the point of risks which you mentioned about inflation. <br />Most People don't expect inflation in japan, but it is coming. <br /><br /><br />Warm Regards<br />LexLexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-48666502240024020302013-05-08T07:56:31.982+08:002013-05-08T07:56:31.982+08:00Thank You. If i have the time, I will.Thank You. If i have the time, I will.sgyounginvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02036598665471392859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-8326732204575618312013-05-07T22:52:24.190+08:002013-05-07T22:52:24.190+08:00Hi, its being a looong wait since your last articl...Hi, its being a looong wait since your last article. I am a big fan of your analysis, though I mayb twice your age, but I started to really learn abt investing less than a yr ago...<br /><br />Your articles really sped up my learning process, pls keep this article coming if time allows!<br /><br />Cheers<br />Tony Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01678858017160473820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-11462200173957784242013-05-06T20:19:01.204+08:002013-05-06T20:19:01.204+08:00The job of an investor is to look for undervalued ...The job of an investor is to look for undervalued asset and not to look for an asset where a greater fool will buy at a higher price. Perhaps, we can succeed a few times, but in the long run it is likely that we will suffer more loses.sgyounginvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02036598665471392859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8488305785096287326.post-6454734203031246942013-05-05T09:51:35.289+08:002013-05-05T09:51:35.289+08:00Hi
I am sure the CRT will be oversubscribed as we...Hi<br /><br />I am sure the CRT will be oversubscribed as well. Just look at how people are buying up on Saizen Reit. Looks like Japan assets are back in favor now.Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09041255778427742477noreply@blogger.com